Idea for a project proposal to discuss with SALs at UKCEH:
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Oil palm and palm oil are without doubt the most important issue in tropical rainforest conservation today, and will be so for the foreseeable future.
This is quite a turnaround, given that only in 1990 this issue would have been at best of marginal global importance (see graph left from here), but the world has changed since 1990: palm oil can now be found in >50% of all packaged foods, cleaning products, soaps and cosmetics worldwide, and oil palm plantations now cover a staggering 10% of all permanent global cropland (mostly in Malaysia and Indonesia, who between them account for 84% of global production), with a large fraction of that area having been cleared directly from pristine tropical rainforest (Pirker 2016). See 8 things to know about palm oil from WWF. |
THE PROBLEM
In 2011 I spent time in Malaysia working next to and in oil palm plantations as part of Imperial College's SAFE project in collaboration with the South East Asia Rainforest Research Partnership (SEARRP) (which contributed to this 2018 paper). I learnt quite a lot about oil palm in that time:
- The main detrimental effects of oil palm plantations are
(a) the initial 'pulse' of biodiversity and carbon loss when the plantation is established (very high if established on cleared primary forest; much reduced if established on brownfield sites) and
(b) the ongoing loss of soil and soil fertility during the ~25 year lifetime of a plantation (palm trees don't last longer and all plantations are replanted from scratch thereafter).
- Some 15-20% of palm oil produced globally is certified sustainable (by RSPO) and in 2012 the UK committed itself to supporting this initiative with the result that some 80% of palm oil entering the UK is now certified sustainable, which is very welcome (see this 2017 DEFRA report). Certification is the way forward to regulate this industry (the industry has bought into this agenda and Asia's young people are supporting it too) and certification does take into account both (a) and (b) above.
- However, there has been much debate on whether 'sustainable palm oil' really is sustainable. Most sources have focused on that initial pulse (a), but I want to look closely instead at ongoing losses (b).
- Despite many tropical areas having the climate for oil palm (e.g. mapped here), oil palm requires well-drained and stable soil and if you factor that in, suitable areas are much rarer (e.g. see ISRIC 2007). Also, in many areas the crop is only suitable with huge efforts at soil management, fertiliser input and irrigation (e.g. each growing plant requires approx. 200 L/day water). I believe that actually, a large proportion of current oil palm plantations are not as financially sustainable as they appear, even if you exclude the question of the initial pulse (above).
This is not a question of cover-up: it's a question of insufficient analysis. Many factors such as soil are not adequately taken into account and the suitability of a parcel of land is usually just given as "yes"/"no"/"marginal", which I believe can prompt land owners to just go ahead and establish a plantation anyway because of the well-advertised huge profits to be had if it works. I have not seen any study that factors in soil degradation over time when plantations are established either, though I imagine after even a few years 'suitable' soil might have degraded far enough to require extra fertiliser additions.
I believe It would be much better to be able to quantify this in terms of, say, "if you establish a plantation here you will have to spend $XXX per ha per year on soil management and fertiliser input", but I have not seen any study that does something like that.
In 2011 I spent time in Malaysia working next to and in oil palm plantations as part of Imperial College's SAFE project in collaboration with the South East Asia Rainforest Research Partnership (SEARRP) (which contributed to this 2018 paper). I learnt quite a lot about oil palm in that time:
- The main detrimental effects of oil palm plantations are
(a) the initial 'pulse' of biodiversity and carbon loss when the plantation is established (very high if established on cleared primary forest; much reduced if established on brownfield sites) and
(b) the ongoing loss of soil and soil fertility during the ~25 year lifetime of a plantation (palm trees don't last longer and all plantations are replanted from scratch thereafter).
- Some 15-20% of palm oil produced globally is certified sustainable (by RSPO) and in 2012 the UK committed itself to supporting this initiative with the result that some 80% of palm oil entering the UK is now certified sustainable, which is very welcome (see this 2017 DEFRA report). Certification is the way forward to regulate this industry (the industry has bought into this agenda and Asia's young people are supporting it too) and certification does take into account both (a) and (b) above.
- However, there has been much debate on whether 'sustainable palm oil' really is sustainable. Most sources have focused on that initial pulse (a), but I want to look closely instead at ongoing losses (b).
- Despite many tropical areas having the climate for oil palm (e.g. mapped here), oil palm requires well-drained and stable soil and if you factor that in, suitable areas are much rarer (e.g. see ISRIC 2007). Also, in many areas the crop is only suitable with huge efforts at soil management, fertiliser input and irrigation (e.g. each growing plant requires approx. 200 L/day water). I believe that actually, a large proportion of current oil palm plantations are not as financially sustainable as they appear, even if you exclude the question of the initial pulse (above).
This is not a question of cover-up: it's a question of insufficient analysis. Many factors such as soil are not adequately taken into account and the suitability of a parcel of land is usually just given as "yes"/"no"/"marginal", which I believe can prompt land owners to just go ahead and establish a plantation anyway because of the well-advertised huge profits to be had if it works. I have not seen any study that factors in soil degradation over time when plantations are established either, though I imagine after even a few years 'suitable' soil might have degraded far enough to require extra fertiliser additions.
I believe It would be much better to be able to quantify this in terms of, say, "if you establish a plantation here you will have to spend $XXX per ha per year on soil management and fertiliser input", but I have not seen any study that does something like that.
THE SOLUTION
I would like to use the JULES model to predict the consequences of different scenarios of palm oil growth in Malaysia and Indonesia in terms of carbon stock management. Differently from previous approaches, I would bring my knowledge of soils to bear on this because my reading of ISRIC (2007) is that oil palm's substrate requirements are actually less general than people currently believe: I think the yield and quality of the oil will decline away from sandy soil types, but I find noone who is measuring this.
I would need a two-step approach:
(1) The JULES model does not yet have a palm oil PFT, so this would first involve putting one in (which is quite straight-forward, and we can follow others on this because this is already implemented in both CLM and ORCHIDEE). Anna Harper at Exeter would perhaps be able to help with this, as well as Yuangchao Fan who I know from my visit to Bergen in 2017.
(2) Once we can simulate oil palm using JULES, I would like to factor in properly the soil types they have in Malaysia and Indonesia (see Mantel et al. 2007) and get the model to estimate oil palm yield and quality based on climate and soil conditions. This would produce a high detail management tool that would be of huge value to the industry and regulators. I would also like to work with Dr Lucey at Oxford to simulate options for a sustainable landscape of mixed oil palm and rainforest.
I would like to use the JULES model to predict the consequences of different scenarios of palm oil growth in Malaysia and Indonesia in terms of carbon stock management. Differently from previous approaches, I would bring my knowledge of soils to bear on this because my reading of ISRIC (2007) is that oil palm's substrate requirements are actually less general than people currently believe: I think the yield and quality of the oil will decline away from sandy soil types, but I find noone who is measuring this.
I would need a two-step approach:
(1) The JULES model does not yet have a palm oil PFT, so this would first involve putting one in (which is quite straight-forward, and we can follow others on this because this is already implemented in both CLM and ORCHIDEE). Anna Harper at Exeter would perhaps be able to help with this, as well as Yuangchao Fan who I know from my visit to Bergen in 2017.
(2) Once we can simulate oil palm using JULES, I would like to factor in properly the soil types they have in Malaysia and Indonesia (see Mantel et al. 2007) and get the model to estimate oil palm yield and quality based on climate and soil conditions. This would produce a high detail management tool that would be of huge value to the industry and regulators. I would also like to work with Dr Lucey at Oxford to simulate options for a sustainable landscape of mixed oil palm and rainforest.
Project to be in collaboration with Yuanchao Fan from Bergen/Goettingen, Zed Zulkafli in Malaysia, SAFE (who I worked for in 2011) and the South East Asia Rainforest Research Partnership (SEARRP) in Malaysia, and also possibly with Tom Evans at WCS and the SPOTT team at ZSL (Mandar Trivedi). Joel Scriven works for Nature-based solutions at Shell, Indonesia.
UKCEH has a MoU with Universitas Brawijaya in Indonesia and this project could also form part of UKCEH's SE Asia research, perhaps.
UKCEH has had some involvement in oil palm issues (e.g. the AP-GRO project in 2018-19, this 2020 webinar and Ute Skiba's work on GHG emissions), but so far it has been I believe a peripheral issue for us. Given that oil palm only grows in humid tropical forest areas, should UKCEH involve itself in this issue? I believe absolutely yes: firstly, the UK is a major consumer of palm oil and therefore heavily involved in this trade, and secondly UKCEH speaks with a loud voice on the international stage on ecological matters: I would argue it needs to put forward a clear opinion of one of the most important ecological issues of today.
ISRIC (2007). Biophysical Land Suitability for Oil Palm in Kalimantan, Indonesia.
Pirker et al. (2016). What are the limits to oil palm expansion? Global Environmental Change.
UKCEH has a MoU with Universitas Brawijaya in Indonesia and this project could also form part of UKCEH's SE Asia research, perhaps.
UKCEH has had some involvement in oil palm issues (e.g. the AP-GRO project in 2018-19, this 2020 webinar and Ute Skiba's work on GHG emissions), but so far it has been I believe a peripheral issue for us. Given that oil palm only grows in humid tropical forest areas, should UKCEH involve itself in this issue? I believe absolutely yes: firstly, the UK is a major consumer of palm oil and therefore heavily involved in this trade, and secondly UKCEH speaks with a loud voice on the international stage on ecological matters: I would argue it needs to put forward a clear opinion of one of the most important ecological issues of today.
ISRIC (2007). Biophysical Land Suitability for Oil Palm in Kalimantan, Indonesia.
Pirker et al. (2016). What are the limits to oil palm expansion? Global Environmental Change.